Blair contemplates thinking

High speed backpeddling over Israel's invasion of Lebanon, coupled with some (re) thinking of the West's global anti-terrorism strategy: could this mark an awakening within the Blairite mind?

The poms are revolted and revolting:

Tony Blair will face down his critics today over his controversial handling of the Middle East crisis by insisting that he has been working throughout for a ceasefire in Lebanon and that his position has been misunderstood.

...

Mr Blair has being criticised publicly and privately by ministers and senior backbenchers, and has antagonised most members of the EU as well as the United Nations secretariat.

It emerged yesterday that he ignored not only the advice of the Foreign Office but foreign affairs specialists in Downing Street, who argued that the Israeli offensive was counter-productive and favoured a call for an immediate ceasefire.

Nothing new there. But not only is he backpeddling and clarifying his position in relation to the current carnage, he's starting to exhibit signs of reflection in relation to his Iraq-War-supporting hubris:

Tony Blair has called for a "complete renaissance" of the West's strategy to defeat militant Islam.

Speaking in Los Angeles, Mr Blair admitted the use of force alone had alienated Muslim opinion and there was now an "arc of extremism" stretching across the Middle East and beyond.

He called for an "alliance of moderation" that would combat terrorism using values as much as military might.

On a day when at least 52 people were killed in attacks in Iraq - and four British soldiers were killed by insurgents in Afghanistan and Iraq - Mr Blair's words were an apparent admission that the use of military force alone had failed.

He must have belatedly picked up the copy of the UK Times in which your scribe, randomly interviewed in a pub in Angel Islington, got a sub-heading on page 5 with the quote

"It's been all stick and no carrot since 9/11".

Happy to be at Her Majesty's service.

Paul on Paul on Shane on everything with a pulse

This morning, tired of staring at job descriptions trying to decide which of my potentially pending options I would like, or hate, or neither, I read the Good Weekend extract from Paul Barry's expose on Shane Warne.

I had already read that Simone (now) Callahan is considering suing, and in chattering with the missus (who is a far smarter lawyer than I) reached the conclusion that she would be mad to go there. All litigation is uphill, destructive, and best avoided if you have the chance. The shorter version of it is that Barry's book suggests Warne had lots of affairs and it casts aspertions on their marriage.

A law suit based on this seems destined to be ugly, and largely futile, as well as guaranteeing much higher sales of the book.

However going by the tone of the Good Weekend extract, by the end of brekky I understood why she'd be hurting beyond logic. And it did occur to me that she may have a winning case. So much appears to be imputed, or credited to vague-sounding sources, that the book may well be littered with the key elements for a good defo action: allegations of fact that are defamatory and whose existence cannot be proven.

It also has a whiff of malice, an unnecessary nastyness directed at the wife. She's just a stupid, big-titted blonde apparently, even though he also describes a revolting 'boys only' culture in the cricket scene that makes Aussie Rules and Rugby players sound like trappist monks, a culture that as he describes it pretty much forces wives to stay apart and away from the on-tour lives of their husbands.

Typical that the heat for Warney's slappery and the throwback conduct of the cricketers will be mostly felt by his wife and kids.

There you go Howard, that's what the sport you love and its concept of 'mateship' do for families.

While Barry waits to see if he'll be eviscerated on the stand by the likes of Stuart Littlemore QC, his namesake Toohey has laid into him with a cleaver in the Bulletin:

Now we know about Barry. Which is that he’s no good at writing trash. Trash needs love! Warmth! Fun! A tickle under the armpits! It does not require someone to be stripped naked, blindfolded, tied to a filthy dunny and smashed around the kidneys with an iron pipe. That’s what he’s done to Warne. And Simone.

Found via the Blair Wing project.

Credit where it's due- Condy Asserts

This appears to be already out of date, but having criticised the US and Dr Rice's response so stridently I was pleased to read that, allegedly:

Intense pressure from US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice forced the Israeli Government to suspend its bombing campaign in southern Lebanon.

With doubts getting stronger over the Atlantic, could it be that even some neocons are starting to wane?

Israel, the new Austria

One lousy dead politician sparked the enormous overreaction by Austria that precipitated WWI. Hizbollah's attack on legitimate targets, a handful of soldiers, has spiraled to daily mass murder of civilians:

54 Lebanese civilians were killed in an Israeli attack on Sunday.

...

More than 30 children died in the Qana attack - the deadliest Israeli raid since hostilities began on 12 July when two Israeli soldiers were seized.

Apologies to the supporters of Israel-appeasement, but I went looking for an equivalent massacre of Israeli civilians by the Lebanese, for balance, and came up wanting.

54 civilians slaughtered deliberately. Their press releases say as much. Shorter Israel press release: We know we targeted civilians, but as Hizbollah were hiding among them we believe we are justified killing them all.

Here's how being a thrashing great war criminal is improving their prospects for peace by endearing them to their neighbours...

Lebanese PM:

we scream out to our fellow Lebanese and to other Arab brothers and to the whole world to stand united in the face of the Israeli war criminals.

Arab League:

The attacks that Israeli forces are launching targeting civilians and the Lebanese infrastructure are another confirmation of Israeli aggressive intentions.

Egypt:

Egypt expresses its profound alarm and its condemnation of the irresponsible Israeli bombing of the Lebanese village of Qana.

Jordan:

This criminal aggression is an ugly crime that has been committed by the Israeli forces in the city of Qana that is a gross violation of all international statutes.

Iraq, all but declaring war on the US:

Islamic nations will not forgive the entities that hinder a ceasefire. It is not possible to stand helpless in front of this Israeli aggression on Lebanon. If an immediate ceasefire in this Israeli aggression is not imposed, dire consequences will befall the region.

How ungrateful, when they're supposed to be hanging garlands of flowers around effigies of GWB and opening their legs to US trade.

And Lebanon has humiliated the duplicitous and dishonest Dr Rice by telling her to stay the hell away.

With relative moderates like Jordan and Egypt beside themselves with rage, and the Iraqi government clearly blaming the US along with Israel and warning of dire consequences, how much safer are Israeli citizens now?

How much safer are we, taking sides with the world's most insolent rogue state?

Meanwhile at LP, Weathergirl matches some right wing hate talk with appropriate images from the frontline.

Classifying killers

(Updated, below)

A nice little piece by Michael Pascoe in today's Crikey (subscriber edition) asks why is it that some Australians who go overseas and join other people's wars for reasons of religious fanaticism attract sadness from our Government, while others attract hatred?

Meanwhile, Israel's beyond hiding it's intention to breach humanitarian law by targetting civilians:

..a cabinet minister warned that all those who remained in the region would be treated as the enemy.

Exhibit number #1 in the trial of Olmert v Humanity (2015). But hey, who cares less, they could use a nuclear weapon at this point and the Right would wring its collective hands and point out that, well, Hizbollah also fires rockets.

Hence I've given the trial a few years to materialise. Wait until he's lounging on a beach somewhere then snatch him away on a speedboat. Israel could hardly complain, there's a precedent for this sort of thing.

UPDATE: More conservatives edge away from the madman in the room:

Richard Armitage, the deputy secretary of state in Mr Bush's first term and assistant secretary of defence in 1982 in the Reagan administration when Israel invaded Lebanon, said Israel's military campaign would embolden Hezbollah and was working against the US's wish for democracy in the Middle East.

Al Quaeda make hay while the sun shines, predictably:

Al-Qaida's deputy leader, Ayman al-Zawahiri, made a dramatic intervention in the Lebanese crisis yesterday with a videotape calling on Muslims everywhere to rise up against Zionists and "crusaders".

"How can we remain silent while watching bombs raining on our people?" he asked. "O Muslims everywhere, I call on you to fight and become martyrs in the war against the Zionists and the crusaders," he said in the eight-minute tape, entitled The Zionist-Crusader War on Lebanon and the Palestinians, parts of which were broadcast by al-Jazeera television yesterday.

Zawahiri also criticised "impotent, treacherous" Arab governments for their feeble response to the Israeli attacks. "My fellow Muslims, it is obvious that Arab and Islamic governments are not only impotent but also complicit ... and you are alone on the battlefield. Rely on Allah and fight your enemies ... make yourselves martyrs."

We may as well fund their recruitment adverts. Actually, we already do.

Ball-watching skills: A Big Kim Masterclass

Yes Labor should be making hay out of the threat of interest rate rises, but the point is that Howard misled the Australian public by inferring he could keep rates stable. The idea that Howard and Costello should be bending over forwards to keep rates down has little substance, and I question his choice of metaphor:

Quite obviously Peter Costello and John Howard have taken their eye off the ball.

If he means leadership tensions he should say it. Otherwise it could look like he means:

Unlike Labor they've had their eyes off the interest rate ball and on big picture issues like war in the middle east.

I categorically disagree with Howard's response to that war, but it's a more important ball to be watching than the endless domestic slapfest over interest rates.

Israel attacks UN, China, Austria, Canada and Finland

(UPDATES I, II, III, IV and V below)

When is an accident not an accident? The killing of 4 UN observers demonstrates the wanton recklessness -at the very least- being displayed by Israel as it razes Lebanon.

Olmert has expressed deep sorrow. He's wisely not added fuel to the fire by adding a rider about how the strike was an unavoidable consequence of fighting Hizbollah. You know, the one Israel has added to every statement of regret in relation to the close to (over?) 400 dead Lebanese civilians.

Kofi Annan wants to know if the targetting could have been deliberate:

Mr Annan describes the strike as a "coordinated artillery and aerial attack on a long-established and clearly marked UN post".

Sounds like a fairly good prima facie case to me.

Israel's Ambassador to the UN puffs up and hits back:

"I was shocked and deeply distressed by the hasty statement by the secretary general insinuating that Israel has deliberately targeted the UN post at Khiam and surprised at these premature and erroneous assertions".

More distressed than at the loss of life? Or less? Different kind of distress, perhaps?

And isn't the word 'erroneous' also then premature? Was it a freudian slip regarding the most likely conclusion to be drawn from any Israeli investigation?

Mr Annan has given his reasons, thereby presenting a case that demands an answer from Israel. Why, Israel, did your carefully targetted attacks hit a

long-established and clearly marked UN post?

Stop whining and give us a damn explanation. If Mr Annan's suspicion is provably way off mark, tell us why.

Oh, and China wants an apology pronto.

UPDATE: Tim Fischer blames 'rogue elements' and points out why it's not premature to be contemplating the worst:

"Clearly there are rogue elements on both sides of the border. There is a rogue element in the Israeli military machine and it's about time the world called a spade a spade and recognised that element has been there for several years and continues.

"Of course they (the Israeli government) will investigate it and I look forward to that and of course you will hold final judgment but as prima facie evidence 10 phone calls - 10 calls - were made from that clearly marked UN compound post.

"And why might you be suspicious? Because there's form. In 1996 the Fijians, the poor old Fijians, maintaining a UN compound in exactly the same area took a hit which killed 104 people sheltering in the UN compound and that has become known as the Qana massacre.

UPDATE II: More evidence they knew, or should have known, what and who they were attacking.

*fingers tapping on desk*

UPDATE III: The bloodshed also continues in Gaza, taking the total death toll to well over half a grand in this 'latest' war.

UPDATE IV: It's not all bad news though, Daniel has evidence of terrorists being nailed!

UPDATE V: More lamenting from Sherro:

It was the most cosmopolitan, democratic, livable and successful Arab society in the Middle East. The Cedar Revolution last year led to the departure of the Syrians. This was a wonderful human triumph, participated in by Lebanese Christians as well as Muslims. But it also had a huge political import. In Washington recently, several analysts told me their most fervent hope was that one day Iraq would come to resemble Lebanon: a bit of chaos, a bit of disorder, a few militias with too many weapons, but the energy of the street, the instinct of the trader, the growing national pride pulling it through to something better.

In other words, the success of Lebanon was the brightest star on the Middle East horizon.

The probable destruction of the modern Lebanese political development is a profound loss for the Middle East.

That too.

'Gratulations Zoe!

Now if only I could communicate this same message to our cats.... Zoe breaks some big news to Sage. Too cute!

Howard launches Small Step policy

Howard's latest reconciliation initiative launched:

"Reconciliation is not going to come as a result of eloquent rhetoric or high level communiques," he said.

"It'll come through Indigenous and other Australians taking millions of small steps in the right direction."

But Mr Howard, small steps have already been taken and you declined to join in....

Ten eyeballs skewered on the yardstick of revenge

From a piece in Crikey's daily subscriber edition, by Sol Salbe 'who monitors the Hebrew media for the left-leaning Australian Jewish Democratic Society':

On Monday a high-ranking Israeli Air Force officer caused a storm in an off-record briefing, during which he told reporters that IDF Chief of Staff Lieutenant-General Dan Halutz had ordered the military to destroy ten buildings in Beirut in retaliation to every Katyusha rocket strike on Haifa.

Numbers reach perfect parity- at a factor of ten:

Dr Rice flew into Lebanon late yesterday, seeking a "sustainable" ceasefire in a conflict that by last night had cost more than 370 lives in Lebanon and at least 37 Israeli lives.

Brits are tired of Blair dictating Foreign Policy while supine before the US President:

Even a majority of Labour supporters - traditionally more supportive of Mr Blair's foreign policy position - think he has misjudged the relationship, with 54% saying Britain is too close to the US. Conservatives - 68% - and Liberal Democrats - 83% - are even more critical.

Oh that Australians will one day express similar levels of dignity.

Our new friends in Iraq make a stunning and obvious point:

"What is going on in Lebanon will be a great push to fundamentalism ... This will increase terrorism and extremism".

Oops make that 380 dead Lebanese, plus over 800 wounded, coupled with around 120 deaths in Gaza. Some more 'terror' targets nailed:

..two brothers, aged 9 and 11, and their uncle were killed in their home..

..an attack on a Palestinian refugee camp at Rashidiyeh killed one of the inhabitants and wounded five others including a baby in pre-dawn attacks...

and in a major strategic victory in the War on Terror:

Israeli shells have killed five people and wounded several others in the Gaza Strip, including a 60-year-old woman and her 12-year-old grandson riding a donkey cart.

Donkey Carts being a vehicle of choice for opportunistic Jihadis.

Meanwhile, the ALP tries to leap in a stealth bomber and fly completely under the radar. Beazely mutters something vaguely apologist and pro Israel, Rudd does some slightly more balanced hand wringing... is this the best we can expect from what has now become a one issue party? Are they saying more but being ignored by the MSM?

Evolution Denied

Cautionary note to contrarian lefties; spend too long in bed with the conservative right and your grip on science will slip. From a short rant by Graham at Harry's:

I reckon that some of the slimey boneless creatures currently infesting the British left evolved from amphibians myself.

Please correct me if I'm wrong but didn't we all....?

Indifferent sheep and Kosciusko views

Crunching on loose gravel, I worked my way towards the main road. Dozens of sheep stared and strays who'd been feeding between the track and the fence sprinted across to seek safety with the flock. A couple of black cockatoos cursed the city slicker in the bright blue hoodie jogging under their breakfast buffet.

Space is different in the country, deceptive when you're myopic from working on computers all day and counting cracks in pavement. It sounded easy enough- 'down to the end of the driveway, a short distance up the hill then take the track to the sheds'. A good 'task' for my morning jog. And from the kitchen window it didn't look all that far either.

In Northcote, if you can see it, you can probably crawl to it on your stomach with your hands tied behind your back.

Ten minutes later as I started working up the hill, which now towered over me and embodied menace and ridicule, I was recalibrating my judgement. What heroism is demonstrated by having a heart attack at 33 on a country road?

I made myself feel more adequate by sneaking up on and scaring a sheep. 'Ha, tremble before my primal beasthood' I shouted at its retreating hindquarters, puffing my chest out. Then I scuffed my Asics all the way home and made myself a nice hot latte.

We had 3 days of roadtrip and farm life. Relations have improved between beloved and her father and stepmother. Understanding, born of time and shared love for a 6 year old daughter and stepsister, has infiltrated the previously tense relationship. Life, even my constant tooth grinding over the middle east, was placed on pause as we enjoyed simple pleasures like teaching the little one marbles or inspecting the vineyards.

The valley is breathtaking; a patchwork of wine, sheep and cattle country cut with pockets of bush and bubbling trout streams opens a vista bordered, in the distance, by the Snowies and a white capped Mount Kosciusko; Australia's second highest mountain.

I feel a strange sense of beloved's whole life in that valley, a childhood I'll never see which shaped the character of the woman I love.

We returned to honking trucks on a rain-soaked Sydney Road. I was in shock for at least 4 hours.

Hizbollah Nailed!

Our support and US bankrolling pay off:

The ambulanceman gave Ali the job of keeping his mother alive. The 12-year-old did what he could. "Mama, mama, don't go to sleep," he sobbed, gently patting her face beneath her chin. Behind her black veil, her eyelids were slowly sinking. "I'm going to die," she sighed. "Don't say that, mama," Ali begged, and then slid to the ground in tears.

No more firing rockets into Israel for you, mama.

Three passengers sitting in the third row were killed instantly, including Ali's grandmother. Sixteen other passengers were wounded. In recent days, families like the Sha'itas are bearing the brunt of Israel's air campaign and its efforts to rid the area of civilians before ground operations. A day after Israel's deadline for people to leave their homes and flee north of the Litani river, roads which in ordinary times wind lazily through tobacco fields and banana groves have been turned into highways of death. Plumes of smoke rise in the distance, and the road in front of us offers up signs of closer peril: car wrecks, still smoking after Israeli strikes, and abandoned vehicles with shattered rear windows. Some were direct hits by Israeli aircraft. Others were drivers who had lost control. Overhead is the menacing roar of Israeli warplanes and the buzz of drones tracking every movement.

So, Hillary, if this happened to you at 12, what would you want to do at 20? Knit sweaters with 'I love Israel and America' on the front?

We endorse this. America bankrolls this. America rushes weapons over lest Israel's relentless slaughter be slowed by, god forbid, a lack of weaponry.

Meanwhile in the UK, someone's breaking the lockstep:

Mr Howells spent Saturday in Beirut seeing bombed-out ruins. Talking of civilian deaths and the destruction of infrastructure, he said: "These have not been surgical strikes. And it's very, very difficult I think to understand the kind of military tactics that have been used." Yesterday, in an interview in the northern Israeli city of Haifa, Mr Howells said the Israelis "know only too well it is not enough just to seek a military victory, they have got to win a wider political battle. That means they have got to think very hard about those children who are dying. It is not enough to say it is unfortunate collateral damage. Every person who has got a mobile phone, every person who can take a photograph of somebody being blown to bits, or a child with a imb missing, is a reporter now".

Everyone with a blog. Everyone with a conscience.

Moderate ponderings from Israel-centric perspectives

Discomfort at Harry's:

why didn't Israel rush to provide an explanation for the bombing of a Lebanese milk factory? Was it intentional? If so, why was it considered a vital target at a time of growing food shortages in the country? Is there some way Israel can help assure minimal supplies of food, medicine and other necessities to Lebanon's most vulnerable while continuing the fight against Hezbollah? (Gene)

Fighting the 'wrong' sort of war is not just immoral, it's stupid. (Brownie the Other)

The formidably well informed and eminently decent Head Heeb (a man well worth visiting for quality analysis on almost any issue related to International Law, very moderate, very learned) considers Israeli-Arab victims of Hizbollah attacks and problems with intitial proposals from the UN.

And Yael K suggests that if they could only cooperate Israel and moderate Lebanese should recognise that they share common enemies and gang up on Hizbollah:

The Lebanese position--1. The Lebanese do not like or want Hizbullah in their country2. They don't like it that Hizbullah attacked their neighbor and broke all hell loose3. They want all under-handed Syrian influence out of their country4. Their government and army has been too weak to kick Hizbullah across the Syrian border (or bury them 6 feet under)

The Israeli position--1. The Israelis do not like or want Hizbullah2. They don't like it that Hizbullah attacked them and broke all hell loose3. They want all under-handed Syrian (and Iranian) influence to stop messing about with their country4. They are going to have a very difficult time totally quashing Hizbullah because they are hiding themselves among the Lebanese population centers.

Can I just make a pan-political statement here and assert that, when you sort the wood from the chaff, the quality and breadth of analysis coming from the blogs in relation to this conflict is comfortably putting the MSM to shame...

Career Quandrary II

Thank you to everyone who left thoughtful advice at my previous post on Career, Canby and pending poppets. One of the nice things about a blogging community is putting the swords down, posting something personal and feeling like you are in a cafe getting well-meaning and often wise advice from a group of friends.

*Holds Latte to one side, hugs various bloggers in turn*

We headed out on foot to find some dinner. An Antarctic blast hit us, inexplicably coming from the east, gushing down each horizontal street we crossed and threatening to drive us onto the main road.

We talked. We found no easy solution to anything. We found common points of agreement, and identified that much is out of our control.

We ate well at a local Vietnamese place. The discussion itself was what mattered. By the time the main course arrived, a fantastic vegetarian hotpot with a light peanut sauce and fat crunchy snow peas, I was lifting.

There is a paradox to the fact that a child will change our lives so profoundly; on the one hand we won't be going out much so having bars and cafes nearby should be less of a priority. On the other hand the very fact that it will be harder to go out makes having such venues for adult respite close at hand so attractive.

I look at a nice spread in the bush, on the city fringes, and think 'that'd do'. I look at nice calibungs 200m from High Street and think 'that's the ticket'.

Who can tell? When our little hobbit is old enough to appreciate such things we may want to go live in London again, for a few years. Before I hit my teens my parents had shown me Borobudur, the Louvre, skiing in Switzerland and Gunung Kinabalu. I treasure all of those memories, they were highlights of my childhood. The idea of spending a few years exploring the great old cities of Europe with our child is one of my more misty eyed dreams for parenthood.

All we need for the next few years is a comfy house with a good roof, functioning heating, space for the cats as well as the poppet, and ideally some friends or family who'll drop over and have a beer from time to time...